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SweetJones55 WNBA Picks
- Thread starter sweetjones55
- Start date
Sky -3.5 LOCKED (x1) WINNER
I am going to be rolling with the Chicago Sky tomorrow night playing at home against the Atlanta Dream. They Sky are now 5-6 SU this year and are coming off their most complete outing of the year winning by 13 against Washington just three nights ago . The Dream are just 3-7 SU this year. I really don't understand this line at all. The Sky were just favored by 6 points against Washington who they blew out by 13 three nights ago . Now they play a team with an almost identical record and they are only favored by 3.5. I see some value in the Sky in this game.
One of the big angles I see on this game is the fact that Atlanta has had a full 9 days of rest for this game. That long of a layoff should result in some rust early on for the Dream, especially shooting the ball. I think that they will trail early. Coming back on the road in the WNBA is very tough task as home court advantage is huge. Even the best teams in the WNBA a lot of years go .500 at best on the road. The Sky are 4-2 at home this year while the Dream are just 1-2 on the road.
Usually when you have a team coming off what their coach calls a "huge" win and ends a losing streak, the team keeps the good play rolling and pulls off a string of wins, especially if it's a home-stand. I just don't see the Sky coming off such a complete game against Washington and laying an egg at home against a team that is just 3-7 this year. I also like the revenge angle on this game. Atlanta did already beat Chicago by three this year, Chicago still covered that game though as a 5.5 dog. The game was just 2.5 weeks ago so the loss should still be fresh in the Sky's minds.
Chicago is 4-0 ATS when playing teams .500 or below so far this year. They beat Washington by 7 already this year, beat NY by 12, covered @ATL, and beat Washington by 13. I really don't think that Chicago's record reflects the team they are. They have had a tough schedule so far but have taken care of business for the most part when playing inferior teams. Chicago has covered 8 of the last 10 games against Atlanta and I don't see them losing to this team twice in the same season. I am expecting the Sky to win by around 6-10 points.
I am going to be rolling with the Chicago Sky tomorrow night playing at home against the Atlanta Dream. They Sky are now 5-6 SU this year and are coming off their most complete outing of the year winning by 13 against Washington just three nights ago . The Dream are just 3-7 SU this year. I really don't understand this line at all. The Sky were just favored by 6 points against Washington who they blew out by 13 three nights ago . Now they play a team with an almost identical record and they are only favored by 3.5. I see some value in the Sky in this game.
One of the big angles I see on this game is the fact that Atlanta has had a full 9 days of rest for this game. That long of a layoff should result in some rust early on for the Dream, especially shooting the ball. I think that they will trail early. Coming back on the road in the WNBA is very tough task as home court advantage is huge. Even the best teams in the WNBA a lot of years go .500 at best on the road. The Sky are 4-2 at home this year while the Dream are just 1-2 on the road.
Usually when you have a team coming off what their coach calls a "huge" win and ends a losing streak, the team keeps the good play rolling and pulls off a string of wins, especially if it's a home-stand. I just don't see the Sky coming off such a complete game against Washington and laying an egg at home against a team that is just 3-7 this year. I also like the revenge angle on this game. Atlanta did already beat Chicago by three this year, Chicago still covered that game though as a 5.5 dog. The game was just 2.5 weeks ago so the loss should still be fresh in the Sky's minds.
Chicago is 4-0 ATS when playing teams .500 or below so far this year. They beat Washington by 7 already this year, beat NY by 12, covered @ATL, and beat Washington by 13. I really don't think that Chicago's record reflects the team they are. They have had a tough schedule so far but have taken care of business for the most part when playing inferior teams. Chicago has covered 8 of the last 10 games against Atlanta and I don't see them losing to this team twice in the same season. I am expecting the Sky to win by around 6-10 points.
Mercury -3 LOCKED (x1) Winner
I am rolling with the Phoenix Mercury playing on the road at Tulsa Shock. The Mercury are 6-4 this year while the Shock are just 1-9. I am just sensing a ton of weakness from the Shock. Tulsa's team is just built very odd. They have a bunch of forwards and centers but barely any guards. They only have two legit guards on the entire roster, Ivory Latta and Andrea Riley. Latta is good but Riley is downright horrible. She is a 33% FG shooter lifetime. The only other guard on the entire roster is Marion Jones, former track runner. She is a joke and shouldn't even be in the league. On the other hand, the Mercury have outstanding guard play. Diana Taurasi is one of the best players in this league and can really light it up. I don't know who Tulsa will try and put on her to slow her down. Tameka and Marie can also put the ball int he basket. Candice Dupree also plays around the permitter a decent amount and is very good putting the ball down and going to the basket.
Tulsa is just in complete disarray right now. The entire town wants the coach fired. He has never coached a womens team and is failing miserably right now. It's not entirely his fault as the team just doesn't have any talent. This team shoots a good amount of airballs... in pregame warmups! That is unheard of even in HS Basketball. On top of the fact that Tulsa is by far the worst team in the league, three of their starters are hurt in Holt, Jackson and Swoopes. Holt is OUT tomorrow night, she averages 7.5ppg 4.5rpg. Jackson is questionable and averages 9.4ppg and 7.1rpg and Swoopes is probable and averages 6.7ppg and 3rpg.
Phoenix has owned Tulsa the last four times they have played them. They are 4-0 SU and 3-1ATS last four games vs Tulsa. They have won by +23 Points average in their last two meetings in Tulsa. They have won by +16.5 points the last four meetings vs Tulsa.
Another profitable angle I see on this game is the fact that Tulsa has not played in 8 days prior to this game. Long layoffs usually hurt WNBA teams a lot, they usually come out rusty shooting the ball. That is bad news for Tulsa as they are already the worst shooting team in the league at 39.9%. This is a scary stat for Tulsa but Phoenix nearly shoots better from 3 Pointers (37.43%) than Tulsa shoots from the field (39.9%).
The big reason I like Phoenix is the credit the linesmakers give Tulsa for home court. Home court advantage is huge in the WNBA and the lines reflect this. But in the case of Tulsa, I feel as if they should get no points for home court yet they linesmakers do and in that lies the line value. Tulsa has the worst fan attendance in the league and I really think fans come out just to watch the opposition at this point. They have no home court advantage whatsoever. It makes no sense to me how they are +14 on the road all the time yet they come home and they only catch +5 to +9.
The Shock were just 5-12 ATS at home last year and are 2-3 ATS home this year. That's a combined 7-15 (31%) ATS at home the past two years. The Shock average 72.3ppg and have only scored over 80 points once this year. I really think they will have to score 90 to keep up with Phoenix. I don't see that happening at all with all the injuries, bad coaching and lack of chemistry. I think the Mercury will win comfortably by about 13-17 points.
I am rolling with the Phoenix Mercury playing on the road at Tulsa Shock. The Mercury are 6-4 this year while the Shock are just 1-9. I am just sensing a ton of weakness from the Shock. Tulsa's team is just built very odd. They have a bunch of forwards and centers but barely any guards. They only have two legit guards on the entire roster, Ivory Latta and Andrea Riley. Latta is good but Riley is downright horrible. She is a 33% FG shooter lifetime. The only other guard on the entire roster is Marion Jones, former track runner. She is a joke and shouldn't even be in the league. On the other hand, the Mercury have outstanding guard play. Diana Taurasi is one of the best players in this league and can really light it up. I don't know who Tulsa will try and put on her to slow her down. Tameka and Marie can also put the ball int he basket. Candice Dupree also plays around the permitter a decent amount and is very good putting the ball down and going to the basket.
Tulsa is just in complete disarray right now. The entire town wants the coach fired. He has never coached a womens team and is failing miserably right now. It's not entirely his fault as the team just doesn't have any talent. This team shoots a good amount of airballs... in pregame warmups! That is unheard of even in HS Basketball. On top of the fact that Tulsa is by far the worst team in the league, three of their starters are hurt in Holt, Jackson and Swoopes. Holt is OUT tomorrow night, she averages 7.5ppg 4.5rpg. Jackson is questionable and averages 9.4ppg and 7.1rpg and Swoopes is probable and averages 6.7ppg and 3rpg.
Phoenix has owned Tulsa the last four times they have played them. They are 4-0 SU and 3-1ATS last four games vs Tulsa. They have won by +23 Points average in their last two meetings in Tulsa. They have won by +16.5 points the last four meetings vs Tulsa.
Another profitable angle I see on this game is the fact that Tulsa has not played in 8 days prior to this game. Long layoffs usually hurt WNBA teams a lot, they usually come out rusty shooting the ball. That is bad news for Tulsa as they are already the worst shooting team in the league at 39.9%. This is a scary stat for Tulsa but Phoenix nearly shoots better from 3 Pointers (37.43%) than Tulsa shoots from the field (39.9%).
The big reason I like Phoenix is the credit the linesmakers give Tulsa for home court. Home court advantage is huge in the WNBA and the lines reflect this. But in the case of Tulsa, I feel as if they should get no points for home court yet they linesmakers do and in that lies the line value. Tulsa has the worst fan attendance in the league and I really think fans come out just to watch the opposition at this point. They have no home court advantage whatsoever. It makes no sense to me how they are +14 on the road all the time yet they come home and they only catch +5 to +9.
The Shock were just 5-12 ATS at home last year and are 2-3 ATS home this year. That's a combined 7-15 (31%) ATS at home the past two years. The Shock average 72.3ppg and have only scored over 80 points once this year. I really think they will have to score 90 to keep up with Phoenix. I don't see that happening at all with all the injuries, bad coaching and lack of chemistry. I think the Mercury will win comfortably by about 13-17 points.
Sky -6 LOCKED (x1) WINNER
I am going to be rolling with the Sky playing at home against the Mystics tonight. The Sky are 4-6 so far this year and 3-2 at home, while losing 5 of their last 6 games. The Mystics are 2-6 this year and losers of 5 of their last 6 games as well.
I really don’t see the Mystics in a good spot to cover this game. They have been playing terribly and can’t even win at home. Home court advantage is huge in the WNBA and the Mystics are so bad that even home cooking isn’t working for them. To then make matters worse, their star player Crystal Langhorne injured her back and is questionable. Their lone win in this 1-5 stretch came against Tulsa, the worst team in the WNBA. I don't see this team coming up with a big effort on the road if they haven’t even been winning at home with their best player healthy.
Not to mention that Mystics already have two good players OUT in Alana Beard and Monique Curry. The WNBA is not at all like the NBA where you have a lot of talent past the starting five. The teams play small rotations due to the lack of depth. Trying to plug in one player is hard enough in this league let alone three key players. The injuries have really hurt the Mystics bench. It is now comprised of three rookies and 2nd year forward Joy Cheek. In their last game, the Mystics bench scored 1 point on 0-8 shooting. The fact is that their bench is jut not good at all and there is no reason to believe that if they couldn't play well at home, where benches usually play very well, that they will bring it on the road.
The Mystics are currently rated the 10th worst offense (12 teams in the WNBA). They shoot 40.5% from the field and average 75.5 points per game. Of their top 6 players in terms of MPG played, only one of them shoots a good percentage and that is Langhorne (56%) who is questionable tomorrow. The other 5 players shoot 43%, 29%, 41%, 37%, 37.5%. Those are really horrible shooting numbers that average out to 37.4%. To put that number into perspective, the Mercury as a team shoot 36%… from 3PT range.
Chicago hasn’t been playing a whole lot better losing 5 of 6 as well but three of the games were on the road and every game was against a tough opponent except Atlanta. Chicago is 3-0 ATS when playing teams .500 or below so far this year. They beat Washington by 7 already this year, beat NY by 12 and lost @Atlanta by 3 but covered the spread.
This should be the game to get Chicago back on track. They will have had a nice four days of rest and should have a ton of confidence playing a team they already beat by 7 on the road. Sylvia Fowles should have a big game as the Mystics will be weak inside. Langhorne may not play so that leaves Anosike as basically the only other F/C to really try and D up on Sylvia. The only other option they have is rookie Victoria Dunlap. Sylvia was 8-12 from the field with 23 points last game @ Washington and I see no reason not to expect an even bigger game from her tomorrow night playing at home.
I am going to be rolling with the Sky playing at home against the Mystics tonight. The Sky are 4-6 so far this year and 3-2 at home, while losing 5 of their last 6 games. The Mystics are 2-6 this year and losers of 5 of their last 6 games as well.
I really don’t see the Mystics in a good spot to cover this game. They have been playing terribly and can’t even win at home. Home court advantage is huge in the WNBA and the Mystics are so bad that even home cooking isn’t working for them. To then make matters worse, their star player Crystal Langhorne injured her back and is questionable. Their lone win in this 1-5 stretch came against Tulsa, the worst team in the WNBA. I don't see this team coming up with a big effort on the road if they haven’t even been winning at home with their best player healthy.
Not to mention that Mystics already have two good players OUT in Alana Beard and Monique Curry. The WNBA is not at all like the NBA where you have a lot of talent past the starting five. The teams play small rotations due to the lack of depth. Trying to plug in one player is hard enough in this league let alone three key players. The injuries have really hurt the Mystics bench. It is now comprised of three rookies and 2nd year forward Joy Cheek. In their last game, the Mystics bench scored 1 point on 0-8 shooting. The fact is that their bench is jut not good at all and there is no reason to believe that if they couldn't play well at home, where benches usually play very well, that they will bring it on the road.
The Mystics are currently rated the 10th worst offense (12 teams in the WNBA). They shoot 40.5% from the field and average 75.5 points per game. Of their top 6 players in terms of MPG played, only one of them shoots a good percentage and that is Langhorne (56%) who is questionable tomorrow. The other 5 players shoot 43%, 29%, 41%, 37%, 37.5%. Those are really horrible shooting numbers that average out to 37.4%. To put that number into perspective, the Mercury as a team shoot 36%… from 3PT range.
Chicago hasn’t been playing a whole lot better losing 5 of 6 as well but three of the games were on the road and every game was against a tough opponent except Atlanta. Chicago is 3-0 ATS when playing teams .500 or below so far this year. They beat Washington by 7 already this year, beat NY by 12 and lost @Atlanta by 3 but covered the spread.
This should be the game to get Chicago back on track. They will have had a nice four days of rest and should have a ton of confidence playing a team they already beat by 7 on the road. Sylvia Fowles should have a big game as the Mystics will be weak inside. Langhorne may not play so that leaves Anosike as basically the only other F/C to really try and D up on Sylvia. The only other option they have is rookie Victoria Dunlap. Sylvia was 8-12 from the field with 23 points last game @ Washington and I see no reason not to expect an even bigger game from her tomorrow night playing at home.
